Buried Deep in SpaceX’s Pre-IPO Disclosures: A Threat to Starlink That Sounds Like Science Fiction

Jeremy PhillipsSun, May 24, 2026 at 11:29 AM UTC

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Raytheon Technologies (RTX) reported Q1 2026 revenue of $22.08B, up 8.7%, with Raytheon division revenue rising 10% and operating profit surging 25% on Patriot missile and naval munitions demand, while the company raised full-year EPS guidance to $6.70-$6.90 on a $271B backlog including $109B in defense contracts.

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I've been reading SpaceX's pre-IPO disclosures hunting for the buried sentence others skip. There's a passage in the risk section that reads like a screenplay: foreign powers, orbital weapons, and a constellation of satellites already in someone's targeting reticle. It sounds like science fiction. It's real.

Here is the actual language from the document:

"The increasing militarization of space and the potential development of space-based warfare capabilities may expose our assets and operations to heightened geopolitical and security risks, including the risk that foreign governments or other actors could target our satellites or related infrastructure. Certain foreign governments have publicly discussed the potential use of anti-satellite weapons against the Starlink constellation."

SpaceX is telling future shareholders that nation-state actors have openly floated shooting down Starlink. That is the threat: anti-satellite weapons, plus the broader militarization of orbit. The IPO paperwork warns that using satellites in conflict zones may invite retaliation from foreign governments and non-state actors, with cascading collision risk that could render orbits unusable.

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Why RTX Sits On the Other Side of This Trade

If space becomes a shooting gallery, somebody builds the interceptors, radars, and jam-resistant comms. That somebody is RTX (NYSE:RTX). Its Raytheon unit makes the Patriot, SM-6, GEM-T, and SPY-6 naval radar. Its BBN division just demonstrated PACE4ACE, a self-healing communications system that automatically reroutes traffic when networks are jammed. Raytheon also won an Office of Naval Research contract to build software-defined radar that can share spectrum with 5G and completed preliminary design review for NASA's Landsat Next instrument suite.

Q1 2026 revenue hit $22.08 billion, up 8.7%, with adjusted EPS of $1.78 against a $1.52 consensus. Raytheon revenue rose 10% with operating profit surging 25% on Patriot and naval munitions. Backlog: $271 billion, including $109 billion in defense. CEO Chris Calio said RTX is "making significant investments to increase output and accelerate the fielding of new capabilities" and raised full-year EPS guidance to $6.70 to $6.90.

Jim Cramer captured the demand backdrop on April 10: "The Patriot missile is still the gold standard. The SM3 interceptors, if you have a rocket headed your way, that's the technology that's going to, you really got to hope is defending it."

What This Means for Starlink IPO Investors

Starlink's business model assumes orbital infrastructure is durable. The pre-IPO disclosures concede it may not be. A single kinetic strike could, per the company's own words, "trigger a cascading collision event that renders our licensed orbits, and potentially other orbits, unusable for an extended period." That risk is uninsurable and unhedgeable inside SpaceX equity itself.

RTX trades at 25x forward earnings with shares up 33% over the past year. If you believe the science-fiction paragraph in SpaceX's risk disclosures is the base case for the next decade, the companies building the shields look very different from the companies building the targets.

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Source: “AOL Money”