NFL Power Rankings entering Week 18: Why Kyle Shanahan is Coach of the Year

Jason Sargent Tuesday, December 30, 2025

- - NFL Power Rankings entering Week 18: Why Kyle Shanahan is Coach of the Year

Frank Schwab December 30, 2025 at 6:59 AM

Kyle Shanahan has been the best head coach in the NFL. Strangely, that doesn’t often translate to NFL Coach of the Year.

Shanahan is having a remarkable season. He has navigated injuries to Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to put his team one win away from the No. 1 seed in the NFC. When you hear people gush about the 49ers’ offense, which averaged 42.3 points and 455.3 yards while punting only twice in December, remember that Shanahan is the driver of that success. He’s the best play caller in the game right now.

Other teams have gone in the tank after injuries that were nowhere near what the 49ers have dealt with, while San Francisco is 13-3. It isn’t just the best coaching job this season, it’s the best coaching job in many seasons.

That’s not usually how Coach of the Year is decided, strangely enough. The award typically goes to a coach who exceeds preseason expectations the most — like preseason predictions are never wrong — and it often goes to a first-year coach. Shanahan might be the best coach, but based on previous history it will go to someone who was a huge improvement over what Matt Eberflus or Jerod Mayo did last season. That’s just how the award is decided most seasons, and it’s unlikely to change. That’s why Vince Lombardi and Bill Walsh each won just one NFL Coach of the Year award. That’s as many as Jason Garrett, Brian Daboll and Matt Nagy and fewer than Ron Rivera or Kevin Stefanski, who have two each.

That shouldn’t bother Shanahan that much. He might not win NFL Coach of the Year, but he’ll just have to settle for being the NFL’s best coach — by a significant margin — this season.

32 (previous ranking 32): Las Vegas Raiders (2-14)

The Raiders have embarrassed themselves as a franchise over the past week, with the injured reserve shenanigans surrounding Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby, then getting blown out by the Giants at home. Perhaps the ends justify the means, because they’re on their way to the first overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft. But we learned a lot about the Raiders over the last week, and it wasn’t pretty.

31 (29): New York Jets (3-13)

The Jets have lost six of seven, and the losses have been by 13, 13, 24, 28, 23 and 32 points. Their -107 point differential in December is the worst in NFL history. Aaron Glenn wasn’t dealt a great hand in his first year as a head coach. The trades before the deadline obviously made the Jets weaker. Quarterback injuries really set the Jets back. But seeing them get blown out every week as the season nears its end has to bring up questions over whether Glenn was the right hire. He backtracked Monday on criticism he made of his team's effort in Sunday's blowout loss to the Patriots. Teams like the Dolphins, Saints, Giants and Titans had rough seasons but have all competed late in the year, at least in spurts. The Jets are showing absolutely nothing.

30 (31): Tennessee Titans (3-13)

Cam Ward’s passer rating before the Titans’ Week 10 bye was 72.1. Since the bye it is 89.2. He had five touchdowns and six interceptions before the bye, and 10 touchdowns and one interception since. There is real progress happening for the No. 1 pick of the 2025 NFL Draft. The Titans are still a bad team with a poor supporting cast around Ward, but seeing Ward making strides is huge, especially with a crucial coaching search upcoming.

29 (28): Arizona Cardinals (3-13)

The Michael Wilson phenomenon is strange. When Marvin Harrison Jr. missed games due to injury, Wilson took off. Despite having just 52 yards through five weeks, Wilson needs only 93 yards in the finale to reach 1,000 for the season. It’s a nice third-year breakout for Wilson. It also leads to questions about Harrison. He has two 100-yard games in his career, with none this season, while Wilson in the same offense has three in the past seven weeks and is averaging 96.6 yards per game. That might reflect well on Wilson, but it’s hard to not compare it to Harrison’s quiet first two seasons and wonder why Harrison hasn’t reached those marks.

28 (30): New York Giants (3-13)

For all the Giants fans who are upset the team might have blown its shot at the first overall pick by beating the Raiders on Sunday, there is value in winning, especially for a young team. The Giants should feel better about themselves than the Raiders and whatever they’re trying to accomplish. If the Giants were desperate for a quarterback maybe Sunday’s win would be worse, but they’re not. Just enjoy the win. The draft will work itself out later; the Giants will still get a very good player.

27 (26): Washington Commanders (4-12)

Against the Cowboys, 2025 seventh-round draft pick Jacory Croskey-Merritt rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns, and 2024 second-round pick Johnny Newton had three sacks. It came in yet another loss, but those are the breakout games the Commanders need to get late in the season. They have a surprisingly old roster and remaking it in the offseason won’t be easy. Having any young players to rely on for 2026 helps that process.

26 (27): Cleveland Browns (4-12)

Cleveland hasn’t had a great season, but a win over the Steelers to keep their rival from clinching the AFC North title is a great highlight. Its defense came up big, keeping Pittsburgh out of the end zone. There are some pieces to start building around, including a strong 2025 rookie class. The only remaining business for the finale is getting Myles Garrett one more sack. He is a half-sack short of the NFL single-season record after getting just a half of a sack over Cleveland’s past two games.

25 (24): Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)

The Chiefs played hard and nearly beat the Broncos. It’s tough when your third-string quarterback gets just 66 yards in his first career start. The funniest thing in Week 18 might be the Chiefs playing so poorly again that the Raiders somehow beat them, screwing up Las Vegas’ plan to get the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and some hope at quarterback. It’s possible. The Chiefs won’t generate a lot of offense and they just need the season to finish. And they probably don’t want the Raiders getting their preferred quarterback. The only motivation to win might be to send Travis Kelce out the right way, if Sunday is in fact his final NFL game before he retires.

24 (23): New Orleans Saints (6-10)

The Saints seem to have gotten it right with the second-round pick of Tyler Shough. He deserves the late Offensive Rookie of the Year buzz he has been getting. New Orleans’ 5-3 record in his starts will carry the Saints into the offseason and provide hope that they can compete for a division title in the terrible NFC South in 2026. It has been a positive second half of the season in New Orleans, which is why the Saints could be even higher in these rankings.

23 (18): Indianapolis Colts (8-8)

The Colts have injury excuses for their 1-7 slide after a 7-1 start. But Jonathan Taylor had an honest assessment after another hard-fought loss. "Obviously, when you lose five, six in a row, you start looking like, 'Hey, OK, we have to be better.' Good teams don't lose five, six in a row," Taylor said. "And then you look, you're fighting, you're fighting, and like I said, it's hard to win in this league. It's a small margin of error.”

22 (21): Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

Performances by the Falcons like Monday night, or back when they blew out the Bills, have to frustrate Atlanta fans. Why does a team with that upside from game to game have a record under .500? One thing is certain: Bijan Robinson is one of the NFL’s most electrifying players. He had 229 total yards Monday night, likely leading more than a few fantasy football teams to championships.

21 (17): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

The Buccaneers might decide to keep head coach Todd Bowles. To suggest it’s unwarranted to put him on the hot seat is weird. The Bucs have lost seven of eight. If they blow the NFC South by losing again Saturday against the Panthers, it’s a 1-8 finish and would put Bowles’ record with the Bucs at 35-36, including playoffs. That putrid finish happened when the team got healthier, too. If the Bucs lose and Bowles returns, it should be controversial rather than expected.

20 (25): Miami Dolphins (7-9)

The tide could have turned on Mike McDaniel after two uncompetitive double-digit losses in Week 15 and 16. The Buccaneers aren’t good right now, but a win over them Sunday helps keep the positive vibes going for the second half of the Dolphins' season. They’re 6-3 after a 1-6 start. It will be a rough offseason dealing with the Tua Tagovailoa situation, and it’s possible 2026 looks like a total rebuild, but McDaniel has probably done enough to make it another season.

19 (22): Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)

Lost in the Bengals’ disappointing season is that Chase Brown rebounded very well from a rough start. Cincinnati’s running back didn’t have more than 71 yards from scrimmage in any of the Bengals’ first six games. Since then he has had 100 or more eight times in 10 games, including a season-best 141 on Sunday. The Bengals’ core of skill-position players will be as strong as ever going into 2026. It’s everything else that needs work.

18 (19): Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1)

Dallas finishing 8-8-1 with a win over the Giants in the finale would be fitting. They’re not good, they’re not bad, they have few good wins (Philly being an exception) and not a lot of bad losses (the Cardinals loss was the only awful one). They’re the epitome of mediocrity, and being the only team to finish .500 this season — no other team can unless there’s a Week 18 tie — might be the most appropriate way for the season to end.

17 (15): Detroit Lions (8-8)

Can the Lions bounce back in 2026? Their advanced metrics don’t reflect the actual disappointment of Detroit's season. The Lions are third in DVOA behind the Seahawks and Rams. They’re 10th in offensive EPA and 13th in defensive EPA, which is respectable. Their point differential of +65 doesn’t fit a .500 team. It will be easy for everyone to talk themselves into Detroit being a team that rebounds and makes the playoffs next season.

16 (16): Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

Last season, the Colts won eight games despite a team passer rating of 75.8, which was 31st in the NFL. They got better quarterback play in 2025 and were 7-1 before a losing streak and injuries derailed them. The Vikings are 8-8 despite a team passer rating of 74.3, which ranks 31st in the NFL. The Vikings are clearly good enough to be a playoff team in 2026 with decent quarterback play. The question will be how to get that upgrade at QB, whether it’s from J.J. McCarthy or elsewhere.

15 (20): Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

The Ravens probably don’t deserve to jump up this much after one impressive win, which was by far their best game of an otherwise disappointing season. But they are somehow .500 with a chance to capture the AFC North, thanks to the Browns upsetting the Steelers on Sunday. And you can at least tell yourself a story that the Ravens could get hot in a wide-open AFC playoffs. Or they could end a poor season with a depressing loss to a beatable Steelers team. It’s amazing to think of how the offseason might change based on the results of Sunday night’s game.

14 (14): Carolina Panthers (8-8)

It’s not like the Panthers could have been expected to beat the Seahawks, even at home, but losing as the Buccaneers were being upset by the Dolphins was disappointing. Still, the Panthers get one game against a Bucs team that is struggling badly to win the NFC South. Before the season started, they would have been ecstatic with that scenario. They’ll need much better play from Bryce Young, who had just 54 yards Sunday, but the Buccaneers’ defense is nowhere near as good as Seattle.

13 (13): Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

DK Metcalf getting himself suspended should get plenty of blame for the Steelers losing Sunday. They needed him, especially in a goal-to-go situation in the final minute. But the Steelers should score more than 6 points without Metcalf. Now they have to beat a rejuvenated Ravens team in the finale, or the season (and probably Aaron Rodgers’ career) is over. And if that happens, expect another round of speculation over Mike Tomlin’s future.

12 (12): Green Bay Packers (9-6-1)

It’s not like the teams behind the Packers in these power rankings deserve to be above Green Bay, but the Packers don’t feel like a top-12 team anymore. Their defense without Micah Parsons got exposed against the Ravens, allowing Derrick Henry to rush for 216 yards and four touchdowns. Had the Packers still had Parsons and maybe another injured player or two like Tucker Kraft, they’d be a popular pick to make a run in a wide-open NFC. As is, it might be a decent outcome if the Packers aren’t one-and-done in the playoffs.

11 (10): Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)

This is nothing new, but the Chargers are going to have a tough time beating teams in the playoffs that rush the passer well. The Texans, Broncos and Steelers are all in the NFL’s top six in sacks, so those would be treacherous matchups. The Texans sacked Justin Herbert five times in their win over the Chargers on Saturday. It’s tough because the Chargers have a great head coach, great quarterback, top-10 defense and great talent around Herbert. But the injured offensive line is likely the fatal flaw.

10 (7): Buffalo Bills (11-5)

Sean McDermott had a common reason for going for the 2-point conversion and the win in the final few seconds against the Eagles: “Wanted to be aggressive, going for the win.” McDermott wouldn’t say this part, but perhaps the Bills’ playoff situation factored in. The Bills had little chance of winning the AFC East at that point. Did he want to put his team through an overtime in the cold and rain Sunday without much potential payoff, or try to end the game on one play? Even if that didn’t go through his mind, it’s a perfectly reasonable decision and a fine outcome.

9 (6): Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

In the second half at Buffalo, the Eagles did not complete a pass and had just 16 yards. Maybe Philly shouldn’t move down three spots after a win at Buffalo, but the problems with its offense aren’t going away. The Eagles might be getting worse. Their defense was fantastic, keeping Buffalo off the scoreboard for the Bills' first eight drives (not counting kneeldowns) but it’s hard to go on a playoff run when you can’t crack 20 yards of offense in a half of football.

8 (9): Houston Texans (11-5)

The Texans can’t win the AFC South unless the Titans beat the Jaguars on Sunday, but a Week 18 win is still valuable. The Texans get the No. 5 seed with a win and get to face the Ravens or Steelers on wild-card weekend, and either of those teams will easily be the weakest of the four division winners. Houston understands this dynamic, and you’ll see it treat Sunday against Indianapolis like a must-win game.

7 (5): Chicago Bears (11-5)

The Bears' offense was great Sunday night, and even though Chicago lost and was eliminated from contention for the NFC's No. 1 seed, it was a positive outing. The defense had its issues, but Caleb Williams continues to come into his own. He has already proven he can produce in pressure-filled moments. The Bears lost to the 49ers but can feel even better about their chances of putting up points in the playoffs.

6 (8): Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)

The Jaguars weren’t just going to walk to an AFC South title, and they were in trouble when the Colts took a 17-14 lead in the third quarter. But this Jaguars team is ascending for a reason. The defense pitched a fourth-quarter shutout and the Jags came back to win. Now all they need is a home win over the Titans in Week 18 to go 13-4 and clinch a division title. What a first season for head coach Liam Coen. And there’s no reason the Jaguars can’t make a deep playoff run. They’re playing as well as anyone.

5 (11): San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

For many weeks, it has been hard to reconcile a team with a defense as bad as the 49ers (26th in DVOA) being a top-five team. San Francisco gave 440 yards and 38 points at home Sunday night. But the Niners scored enough to win, as they’ve done many times this season. Their offense is the hottest in the NFL right now. If they beat Seattle on Saturday night and get the No. 1 seed, that offense will be two home wins from a Super Bowl, which would also be in Santa Clara. Maybe, in an NFL season with so many flawed contenders, the 49ers can pull this off.

4 (2): Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

Apparently, chasing the NFC's No. 5 seed didn’t provide a lot of motivation for the Rams as they lost to the Falcons. Matthew Stafford likely lost his shot at his first NFL MVP award with three costly interceptions, which is a bummer for such a great player. The Rams are still good. But everything since the Seahawks started their comeback in Week 16 is alarming.

3 (4): New England Patriots (13-3)

Drake Maye was already having an MVP-level season. Then in the last two weeks he has gotten better, at least statistically. He threw for a career-best 380 yards in a comeback win over the Ravens and a career-best five touchdowns Sunday against a moribund Jets team. He had never thrown for more than 294 yards or three touchdowns in a game before two weeks ago. The great coach/quarterback combination can go a long way in the playoffs, and the Patriots have that.

2 (3): Denver Broncos (13-3)

It’s hard to keep the Broncos at No. 3 after the past two weeks. They lost decisively to the Jaguars in Week 16 and barely won as a big favorite over an injured Chiefs team on Christmas. But the body of work is good. If they beat a Chargers team that is resting Justin Herbert in Week 18, they’ll be 14-3 and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They’re not unbeatable, but nobody in the AFC or behind them in these rankings is this season. It’s still a very good and often disrespected Super Bowl contender.

1 (1): Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Last season, Sam Darnold’s Vikings went 14-2, but lost in Week 15 and had to settle for the No. 5 seed and a road playoff game, which they lost. It’s wild that in an NFL that could see an 8-9 NFC South champ host a playoff game and that Darnold’s 13-3 Seahawks have to win at the 49ers to avoid a road game in the wild-card round. On the bright side, Seattle isn’t waiting on help from anyone else. With a win the Seahawks are the No. 1 seed, and that’s all they could have asked for at the beginning of the season. The Seahawks' defense against a red-hot 49ers offense is a phenomenal matchup for Saturday night.

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Sports”

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