Ranking NFL teams from most to least likely to return to playoffs
Ranking NFL teams from most to least likely to return to playoffs
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA TODAYThu, July 23, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
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For some NFL fan bases, a playoff berth is nothing to get worked up about.
Merely reaching the postseason can be of little consequence to those accustomed to pushing for Super Bowl titles. And when a campaign ends in jarring fashion, as it did for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills in January, it's difficult to find much consolation in merely advancing past the regular season.
But in the ever-shifting NFL, playoff appearances can't be guaranteed for even the foremost contenders. Look no further than the Kansas City Chiefs, who saw their 10-year streak of postseason berths - one short of the all-time record - come to a screeching halt with a 6-11 finish. Only two franchises have active runs of more than three years reaching the playoffs.
MORE: Ranking NFL teams from most to least likely to crash 2026 playoff field
With training camps drawing near, here is our ranking of NFL playoff teams from 2025 on their likelihood to return to the postseason field this year:
1. Buffalo Bills
Navigating the postseason has proven particularly thorny for Buffalo, which fired longtime coach Sean McDermott after its latest near miss in January. Getting there, however, hasn't been much of a problem. The Bills stand alone with the longest active playoff streak at seven seasons.
Even with Joe Brady taking over as head coach, the Bills should be able to be able to reprise much of what has worked so well in the regular season. So long as Josh Allen remains healthy, another top-five scoring finish - which would make for Buffalo's sixth in seven years - is likely within reach. A talent-strained defense might not be as reliable as it largely was under McDermott, but new coordinator Jim Leonhard could help the unit become more fluid as it looks to find a form that's sustainable for the long term. Though the New England Patriots' re-emergence has brought an end to the team's days coasting to an AFC East crown, the Bills shouldn't have much trouble clearing the bar of another wild-card berth.
2. Los Angeles Rams
In acquiring Myles Garrett after adding cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, the Rams shifted two of their biggest problem areas into areas of strength. Moreover, the marquee moves left Los Angeles without competition for the title of the league's most formidable and well-rounded roster.
Like most other leading contenders, the Rams could see their season go sideways with a spate of key injuries. The outlook behind reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford is particularly concerning, with neither Stetson Bennett IV nor rookie Ty Simpson having demonstrated himself capable of spot work if the 38-year-old misses any time. Still, barring the kind of calamitous personnel hits that derailed Los Angeles' Super Bowl repeat bid in 2022, the floor here should again be the top wild-card slot.
3. Seattle Seahawks
Despite suffering relatively minimal attrition, the defending champions can't quite keep up with the division-rival Rams for the NFC's top spot on this list. Yet everything about their makeup suggests the Seahawks have significant staying power.
While adapting to life without Super Bowl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker III could take some time, Seattle has an established identity that can keep the offense on last season's path, even as new coordinator Brian Fleury takes over for Klint Kubiak. Losing a few notable pieces shouldn't deliver much of a dent to the defensive core, which already has demonstrated it can stand up to the league's most explosive attacks. In all likelihood, the Seahawks should once again find themselves having clinched a playoff berth by late December, even if the fight for the NFC West goes down to the final week.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have packed plenty of drama into one offseason, parting with the likes of A.J. Brown, Kevin Patullo and Jeff Stoutland, all while lingering questions about Jalen Hurts' future remain. This, however, is a franchise accustomed to operating amid strife. Even the contentious campaigns that sandwiched the organization's Super Bowl run in 2024 still resulted in postseason appearances.
In a period of uncertainty, Philadelphia has several reliable sources of stability. One is the offensive front, which shouldn't falter in the short term even after Stoutland's departure. Another is Vic Fangio's defense, which had its two most problematic spots addressed with the acquisitions of edge rusher Jonathan Greenard and cornerback Riq Woolen. While the typically turbulent NFC East won't provide many easy outs, the Eagles are in a highly favorable spot to claim their third consecutive division crown.
5. New England Patriots
In the aftermath of Tom Brady's departure, Robert Kraft coveted a return to the years when New England was a playoff mainstay. Now, the Patriots owner's wish finally might have come to fruition.
The league's second-highest scoring attack looks significantly more imposing to start the year, thanks to the arrival of A.J. Brown and the potential for a much more potent ground game. Meanwhile, a defense that underwent an early-season change in play-caller should be on steadier ground with Zak Kuhr now settled in as the full-time coordinator. There are substantial reasons to doubt the Patriots' ability to match last season's 14 wins, including a more challenging schedule and an offensive line that looks liable to springing leaks. But the reigning AFC champions should have more than enough to at least snatch a wild-card berth.
6. San Francisco 49ers
Having to compete in the same division with the NFC's two leading contenders would typically bump a franchise much further down this list. Indeed, San Francisco is no longer the powerhouse that it was from 2019-23, when it reached at least the conference championship game in four out of five years. But even if the 49ers have dropped down a rung, it would be unwise to overlook a group that's still capable of pushing any contender, including the Rams and Seahawks.
With Kyle Shanahan at the helm, San Francisco has a distinct advantage against other teams with a comparable makeup. Though injuries torpedoed the 2024 campaign, the 49ers have otherwise proven remarkably resilient in navigating the incessant personnel hits that have not abated in recent years. If fortune breaks even slightly in the organization's favor on that front this fall, another postseason berth should be a breeze. A defense that has slipped considerably from its previously lofty standards must find its way under new coordinator Raheem Morris, but the returns of edge rushers Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams and the addition of defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa should allow San Francisco to be significantly more disruptive up front.
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7. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been on a steady climb since Sean Payton first arrived. The summit might be in sight this season. Not only is Vance Joseph's smothering defense poised to vex opponents yet again, but the offense also could open up with the addition of speedy wideout Jaylen Waddle. Aside from Davis Webb ascending to the role of offensive coordinator and play-caller, the rest of the structure is largely the same as last year. But it's easy to see why Denver had faith in a group that might have been Super Bowl-bound if not for Bo Nix suffering a broken ankle in the divisional round.
Yet the scheduling setup prevents Denver from joining the top tier of teams on this list. Payton has acknowledged his squads' tendency to flounder out of the gate, and the six-game stretch to open the season might be the most challenging start for any NFL franchise in 2026. If the Broncos can emerge from their Week 10 bye without having conceded too much ground in what should be a more formidable AFC West, the last two months set up favorably for a strong finish.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
The Bolts have reached the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh's first two seasons and have supercharged their offense with the pivot to Mike McDaniel. What, then, could stand in the way of a third consecutive postseason?
Jesse Minter's departure as defensive coordinator could carry a significant toll for a unit that overachieved during his tenure. Chris O'Leary, a Minter acolyte, will try to keep the unit in top form. Don't be surprised, though, if the group falls short of its previous stellar standard, particularly if the pass rush wavers. McDaniel's system also might not click instantly, with a remade interior offensive line almost certainly needing time to coalesce. That could spell trouble for a brutal seven-game stretch from late September to mid-November, when the Chargers will face five playoff teams in 2025 along with road contests at the Chiefs and Ravens.
9. Houston Texans
How much can you trust a team with rampant offensive line issues? Houston's struggling front has served as an anchor on quarterback C.J. Stroud and an inert rushing attack for two years. General manager Nick Caserio has embraced an offseason overhaul, with three new starters arriving this offseason. But this group still looks like it belongs in the bottom tier of the league's blocking units until it proves otherwise.
With that said, DeMeco Ryans has managed to overcome that shortcoming, with each of his first three years resulting in a trip to the playoffs. An outright dominant defense that doesn't depend on tricks or schematic wrinkles should once again carry Houston a long way. But the AFC South's more equitable landscape could prove a bit more troublesome than it has in years past.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
Consistency has never been a strong suit for the Jaguars, who haven't made consecutive trips to the postseason since 1998-99. While Liam Coen looks on track to bring much-needed stability to the franchise, replicating the highs of last year's nine-win turnaround will be exceedingly difficult.
Coen has a proven track record of revitalizing run games, but he's asking a lot of his system to prop up a collection of unproven ball carriers. While the receiving corps has all the requisite pieces to flourish, Jacksonville still has to figure out how to make them all fit alongside one another. And a defense that was dependent on generating splash plays – namely turnovers – in 2025 could be hard to predict this fall, both for opponents and the team itself. A major backslide doesn't seem likely, but the Jaguars could be somewhat of a grab bag on a week-to-week basis.
11. Chicago Bears
Every franchise would love to have the same level of clarity at coach and quarterback as the Bears do with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams. That tandem, along with the impressive foundation Johnson laid in Year 1, should keep Chicago in the postseason mix for the foreseeable future.
But the Bears' massive leap coincided with the rest of the division taking a step back. That dynamic very likely won't hold in 2026, nor will several other elements - including seven comeback wins after trailing in the final two minutes of regulation and an NFL-best 33 takeaways - that accelerated a remarkable turnaround. Still, the bones here might be strong enough to withstand regression on multiple fronts.
12. Green Bay Packers
Moving on from last season's tailspin won't be so easy for the Packers. Dogged by a pass rush that went dormant as injuries piled up down the stretch, Green Bay will still be without Micah Parsons until at least mid-October. That leaves a unit that lost coordinator Jeff Hafley in a rather precarious place, with 2023 first-rounder Lukas Van Ness facing a heavy burden in generating pressure off the edge in the early going. Between major shifts in the receiving corps and along the offensive line and running back Josh Jacobs' unresolved legal situation after his May arrest, there's a good deal of uncertainty lingering through the summer on the other side of the ball as well.
Matt LaFleur has missed the playoffs just once in his seven-year run, a stretch in which the Packers have established a floor higher than arguably any other franchise. Yet if the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings return to their competitive form of previous years, another trip to the postseason can hardly be seen as a given for Green Bay.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
Hovering somewhere near the fringes of the postseason became standard operating procedure for the Steelers in the latter portion of Mike Tomlin's 19-year tenure. Now, Tomlin is gone, and so too is the sense of certainty that accompanied his reign.
Rather than capitalize on the regime change as an opportunity to reinvent itself, however, Pittsburgh seemed to double down on its past questionable bets. Not only is Aaron Rodgers back for a 22nd – and final – NFL season, but he's reteaming with new coach Mike McCarthy in an attempt by the organization to recapture past glory. While new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham could enliven a defense that grew stagnant, the unit also seems to be past its "best by" date. The ask to keep things together is rather large for a group that only made into the playoff field last year by virtue of Ravens rookie Tyler Loop's missed last-second field goal. And with Baltimore and Cincinnati poised to bounce back after down years, the AFC North figures to be considerably more challenging. Though it's possible that a few key offseason acquisitions help the Steelers once again squeeze into the playoffs, this could be the year that the long-evident cracks deepen.
14. Carolina Panthers
Rounding out this exercise with the only team to make the postseason with a losing record probably makes for an obvious choice. It's also the correct one.
Still not positioned to compete with even the NFC's second tier of contenders, Carolina likely will again need to count on conquering its division to return to the playoffs. That proposition essentially looks like a toss-up right now. Perhaps the defense can make significant strides if big-ticket free-agent signings Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd ignite the languid pass rush (which logged an NFL-worst 26.2% pressure rate) and subpar run-stopping. But with Bryce Young at the helm, this feels like an outfit that's already butting up against its ceiling.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking NFL playoff teams on best postseason odds for 2026
Source: “AOL Sports”
