- - The biggest fantasy football busts of 2025 caught us off guard — what needs to change in 2026?

Chris AllenJanuary 2, 2026 at 10:51 PM

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One of my favorite movie series throughout my late high school and early college days was The Matrix. Back then, the martial arts sequences (“I know kung-fu”) had me on the edge of my seat. And there’s probably a picture floating around the internet somewhere of me dressed as Morpheus for Halloween. But later on, the concept of choice and Neo’s conversations with The Oracle came back to me at this point of the fantasy season.

I’ve made plenty of wrong calls throughout the course of the 2025 season. Just watch the compilation the crew put together after Justin Boone ran away with the Primetime Picks segment. But when you’re in the thick of it, there’s always another week to work out — a new set of angles to consider. Now, with some time on our hands, let’s go through some of this year’s biggest busts. And not just why we made the choice, but also what it’d take for us to consider them again in ‘26.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings (Draft Rank: WR2, EOS Rank: WR26)

Let’s be honest with each other here. Everybody who drafted Justin Jefferson in the early first round knew the risks with his situation. But his ADP, at worst, indicated that we were willing to push the concerns coming out of training camp aside. Besides, HC Kevin O’Connell had built up trust within the fanbase and fantasy community over the years. From Kirk Cousins to “The Passtronaut Game,” O’Connell’s status as a QB whisperer was untarnished. And to start the season, the results were favorable for folks who took the plunge on Jefferson:

JUSTIN JEFFERSON GETS HIS FIRST TD OF THE SEASON 🥶 Watch Vikings-Bears on ABC, ESPN and the ESPN App pic.twitter.com/42N4hlgpwb

— ESPN (@espn) September 9, 2025

Week 1 was about as good a season-opener as the Vikings and fantasy folks could’ve hoped. Jefferson had a 39% target share, caught J.J. McCarthy’s first TD and the Vikings won in primetime. However, McCarthy’s peripherals set off alarm bells. He averaged -0.53 EPA per dropback with a 39.1% passing success rate on just 20 attempts. In other words, what we saw wasn’t sustainable. However, whatever development plans O’Connell had for McCarthy went out the window, leaving Jefferson in the worst situation possible.

w/ Carson Wentz: 29.4% (target share), 68% (catchable target rate), 18.2 (PPR PPG)

w/ McCarthy: 30.4%, 60%, 9.4

w/ Max Brosmer: 25.6%, 65%, 4.7

I brought this up back in Week 8, fully acknowledging that Carson Wentz was a disaster, but he at least knew how to get the ball to Jefferson. I’m sure people with Jefferson on their roster went through the same process each week. They’d see him averaging 8.2 targets per game (tied for ninth-most among receivers), check the matchup and pray for a touchdown.

His problem wasn’t volume. It was either an inaccurate throw or an ill-timed miscue that dragged him down. But (hopefully) those are things the QB and WR can work on over the offseason.

For right now, I’m assuming McCarthy (with a healthy Christian Darrisaw and a plan to mitigate Ryan Kelly’s potential retirement) will be the Week 1 starter. With an offseason to get right, news of the triumvirate of McCarthy, O’Connell and Jefferson getting together to figure out what concepts the on-field duo are most comfortable with would get me back on board. The two found a rhythm in Week 16, with Jefferson running his second-most snaps from the slot and McCarthy triggering to throw faster than he had all season (2.65 seconds). If they can use that game as the blueprint for designing the offense for 2026, Jefferson’s ADP will be worth the cost.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (Draft Rank: WR9, EOS Rank: WR44)

As I’ve often said, progress isn’t linear. The success a player accrues one year won’t always translate to the next, especially if the situation changes. And it did for Brian Thomas Jr. in his second year. But the adjustments were supposed to be positive.

First, he’d be getting his QB back. Trevor Lawrence and the then-rookie played together for half of the season before a shoulder injury and concussion put T-Law on IR. However, even with Mac Jones taking over, Thomas ranked in the top five in yards per route run by season’s end. He showed the ability to win at every level as a route runner. Bringing in Liam Coen as the play-caller was all we needed to see to keep Thomas as a staple of the 1-2 turn in drafts.

But there were problems from the start.

Every Brian Thomas Jr. target from Week 3 pic.twitter.com/YQCP6GjBT3

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 22, 2025

I could excuse a 25% target rate in Week 1, after watching Thomas soar to 35% of the looks to close out ‘24. Jacksonville just traded up to add Travis Hunter. The target distribution would take some time to get right. But catching just one of the seven balls thrown his way was a red flag. And a Week 2 wrist injury, causing Coen to field questions about Thomas’ effort, didn’t help matters. So, with another mouth to feed and a bruised wrist (and ego), the second-year receiver took a step back despite the similar workload.

Target Rate (Weeks 1-7): 21.3% (2024), 21.8% (2025)

Slot Snap Rate: 22.9%, 21.9%

Catch Rate: 66.7%, 49.1%

Now, the blame wasn’t all on the receiver. Lawrence ranked 24th in adjusted completion percentage over the same span, with misfires to Hunter and everyone else. But it didn’t deter Coen from testing what worked best.

Against the 49ers, Thomas primarily played on the perimeter, but in the short and intermediate parts of the field (9.7 air yards per target). Lawrence and Thomas started to get in sync on multiple out-breaking routes, but still no touchdowns. A couple of weeks later, Thomas was in the slot for 33.3% and 44.4% of his targets, avoiding the brunt of the Seahawks’ and Rams’ coverage and finally finding the end zone. The loss of Hunter and Thomas’ high-ankle sprain delayed the trio from getting the much-needed reps required for this offense. But one Jakobi Meyers trade later, and we’re starting to see what works for BTJ in Year 2.

It's been a smaller sample size, but from weeks 1-7, Brian Thomas Jr's Yards per Target was 6.64. Since the Meyers trade, it's gone up to 12.78. Now that he's returned to a role that fits with his explosiveness and verticality, both he and the Jags offense has benefitted pic.twitter.com/uPNQFY2lol

— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) December 9, 2025

Sometimes the best solution is the simplest one. What’s a way to use a 6’3”, 209-lb receiver who can run a 4.33 40-yard dash? Send him downfield!

Since Thomas’ Week 13 return, 15 of his 26 targets have come on out-breakers or vertical routes. He’s averaging 17.8 air yards per target. But, more importantly, his catch rate is up to 57.7% with just one fewer first down than Parker Washington. I’m excited to see how the Jags perform in the playoffs, but the larger question is what to expect next year.

Hunter should be back in the lineup, and Meyers got a multi-year extension. These are good problems for an organization, but tough for fantasy because Thomas is already on the path to getting back in sync with Lawrence as the team’s X-receiver. And with the personnel in place, there’s not much to suggest that’ll change. But Thomas does have two things working in his favor. One, he can operate across the middle of the field, opening up more concepts for him in the future. Plus, Lawrence is still as aggressive as ever. At 9.5 air yards per attempt, there’ll be enough targets for Thomas to stay in the low-end WR2, high-end WR3 conversation for 2026.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers (Draft Rank: WR11, EOS Rank: WR27)

I’ll talk to Matt Harmon about this, but we should come up with another receiver archetype. Harmon’s been the best at contextualizing WR play, with it now being understood that outside pass-catchers are sometimes playing a different sport than the guys on the interior. But then again, Ladd McConkey might be challenging that idea.

Justin Herbert finds a wide open Ladd McConkey for a Chargers touchdownLACvsDAL on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/BrC1NvcOLd

— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2025

There were 12 receivers that lined up in the slot on more than half of their snaps. Of those 12, seven earned more than five targets per game. See if you can spot the difference.

DeVonta Smith: 6.8 (Targets per Game), 11.9 (Receiving aDOT)

Ladd McConkey: 6.6, 9.9

Stefon Diggs: 6.2, 8.6

Wan’Dale Robinson: 8.8, 8.5

Josh Downs: 5.6, 7.3

Deebo Samuel: 6.3, 5.4

Khalil Shakir: 5.9, 3.7

Hopefully, the clip gave it away. In any case, McConkey has the “coveted” slot role that we’ve cherished for other WRs in the past, but both he and Smith are downfield threats from their pre-snap alignment. That’s supposed to be the easy job! For reference, when Ja’Marr Chase goes to the inside, his aDOT drops to 4.2 air yards, and he has a 73.3% catch rate. Meanwhile, we’re just hoping McConkey sees the ball thrown his way. At a 26% target rate to end his rookie campaign, we didn’t think opportunities would be hard to come by.

However, we expected him to be Justin Herbert’s only option when targeting the intermediate and deep parts of the field. We were wrong.

Target Share (on throws of 5 or more air yards): 24.2% (McConkey), 18.4% (Quentin Johnston)

Catch Rate: 53.5%, 53.7%

Yards per Route Run: 2.1, 2.5

Quentin Johnston’s ascension into being a reliable option has been one of the bright spots for the Chargers. Even if the third-year receiver plays on the boundary, his ability to come down with contested catches (relative to the previous two years) and create first downs (just eight fewer than McConkey, with two fewer games played) has spread the Chargers’ passing game out. And that’s without even mentioning Tre’ Harris and Oronde Gadsden II popping up throughout the year. Plus, I’m assuming most will point to L.A.’s offensive line (or lack thereof) as the reason behind the shakeup for the former Bulldog. But even when Herbert’s protection was healthy, the rotation wasn’t working in McConkey’s favor.

Target Share (Weeks 1-3): 19.8%, 3rd (out of the three WRs)

Air Yard Share: 19.4%, 3rd

Yards per Route Run: 1.37, 3rd

Let’s assume Keenan Allen retires. But then one of Harris or KeAndre Lambert-Smith soaks up some looks. Gadsden takes a step forward. Simply put, there will always be somebody within the receiving corps for Herbert. More importantly, an option to allow him to attack downfield (9.4 air yards per attempt in the first three weeks) makes McConkey’s slot role less valuable than others. As a result, without a drop in draft price, it’s hard to see him returning value in 2026.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers (Draft Rank: RB10, EOS Rank: RB35)

The requirements for an early-round RB are simple: maintain a majority of the carries and earn a significant amount of targets. Both descriptors sound subjective, so I’ll add some thresholds.

Over the five seasons before ‘25, a rusher needed to average at least 15.0 PPR PPG to be in the top 10 by the end of the season. Their rush share was 53.6%. Plus, the average target rate was 10.6%, with the lowest in the sample being 3.8% (2021 Derrick Henry).

Bucky Irving’s college profile highlighted his pass-catching skill set, and he was up to an 11% share at the close of ‘24. With the former fourth-round RB at the head of a potent offense, despite losing their OC, Irving’s status as the RB1 wasn’t in doubt. And even with the team coming into the season with offensive line problems, his dual-threat ability sustained his value.

Baker to Bucky! Bucs take the leadTBvsATL on FOXhttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/rxd5XRlfnr

— NFL (@NFL) September 7, 2025

We couldn’t have asked for a better opening script through the first four weeks. Baker Mayfield was under fire on 41.8% of his dropbacks, but still averaged the 11th-most attempts of any starter. Accordingly, Irving was just behind Jahmyr Gibbs in targets per game. Coupled with his 17.3 rushing attempts each week, we had an RB1 on our hands.

But, of course, injuries had to ruin everything.

Now, don’t get me wrong. Irving is still fun to watch. He turns what would be a loss for some into a positive play at least once a week. However, there are no style points in fantasy scoring (yet). Each touch has to mean something (e.g., like a reception for a first down) or set the team up for a score (e.g., an explosive gain). That’s why contextualized usage can point us toward the right players. And in Irving’s case, they were indicating we should look elsewhere.

Rushing Share: 71% (pre-injury), 64% (after return from injury)

Target Rate: 15%, 8%

Short-Yardage Share: 79%, 58%

Two-Minute Snaps: 75%, 54%

During the first month, the Bucs’ RBs enjoyed a 20.1% target share from Mayfield. But with Chris Godwin Jr., Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back, there were fewer attempts to split between Irving and Rachaad White. Even worse for Irving was his loss as the goal-line option. To be fair, Tampa only ran one running play from inside its opponents' 5-yard line through the first month. But that number has been up to eight since Week 13, and Irving hasn’t seen the ball once. Sean Tucker (seven carries) and White (one) have that job. So, independent of Tampa making it to the postseason, we’ll still have questions about Irving’s role heading into 2026.

Both White (unrestricted) and Tucker (restricted) are free agents at the end of the season. But since neither carries a significant cap hit, one or both will be back. If it’s just Irving plus another, we can project more work funneling back his way with the offseason to get healthy. However, with another campaign and no real development as a goal-line or short-yardage option, Irving should be more of an RB2 than a top-12 option.

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (Draft Rank: RB15, EOS Rank: RB23)

Honestly, looking at Kenneth Walker III’s ranks from the draft and through Week 17, you could make the case that he wasn’t a bust. But it doesn’t feel that way. After an injury-riddled ‘24, Walker’s 38.6% forced missed tackle rate was the metric fantasy analysts (me) latched onto when projecting what things would look like this year. And we got glimpses of it throughout the season.

KENNETH WALKER III 55-YARD TD RUN 🚨LARvsSEA on Prime VideoAlso streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/4ezXS8hbok

— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2025

However, his absence gave us more time to watch Zach Charbonnet. And we (again) should’ve taken notice. Across his five starts during the fantasy regular season, Charbonnet finished as an RB1 three times. Sure, he benefited from a couple of short runs for a TD. But the underlying metrics pointed to a split backfield long before Week 1 came around.

Rushing Success Rate (as starters in 2024): 42.5% (Walker), 47.3% (Charbonnet)

Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 3.2, 4.1

Explosive Play Rate: 6.8%, 8.8%

In either case, the allure of Walker in an outside-zone blocking scheme that OC Klint Kubiak was installing kept the veteran RB as a staple of early/middle rounds. It was fair to question whether or not the new offensive staff would see Walker as the unquestioned bellcow, but a foot injury sustained in early August should’ve added more cold water on the idea. But even after the bye, he couldn’t separate from Charbonnet on the same concepts that were supposed to elevate him into the RB1 discussion.

Rushing Success Rate (on outside zone runs after the bye): 51.9% (Charbonnet), 27.9% (Walker)

Adj. Yards After Contact per Att.: 5.9, 4.4

Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 37.0%, 39.5%

My hope for Walker is a change in scenery for 2026. He’s one of 16 players on Seattle’s roster who will be free agents after the season. Five of which are on the defensive side with over 500 snaps this season. With HC Mike Macdonald being a defensive coach, prioritizing his defenders and letting Walker test the market would make sense. Minnesota, Kansas City and Jacksonville (assuming the Jaguars move on from Travis Etienne Jr.) would be ideal landing spots for a rusher with Walker’s vision and utility in the passing game.

However, if he re-signs with Seattle, it’d be hard to expect anything different than what we saw in 2025.

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Sports”